For many small business retailers, November and December are the most profitable months of the year, so holiday sales can mean the difference between a lucrative year and a lackluster one.
The National Retail Federation expects this year’s holiday sales (excluding cars, gas and restaurants) to increase between 3.6 and 4 percent, totaling between $678.75 and $682 billion.
As an alum of major national brands including Wet Seal Retail, Inc. and Pinkberry, who now provides business commentary on CNN and elsewhere, business expert Ryan Patel follows seasonal and annual sales trends closely, both online and in brick-and-mortar locations.
We caught up with Patel to discuss his predictions for retail strategies on Black Friday, Cyber Monday and the holiday shopping season as a whole. The following conversation has been edited for clarity and brevity.
Related: Holiday Season Customer Service Tips
StartupNation: In years past, we’ve seen Black Friday stretching well beyond just the Friday after Thanksgiving. Can we expect to see that this year?
Ryan Patel: Yes. If you look at what happened last year, sales start in November and it carries all the way until December. You’re starting to see a lot of the retailers start to gear up now. Having a strong November is really a strong indicator of a good holiday season for retailers now. Because of that, you’ll see sales before Black Friday. They do not solely rely on just two to four days. They’re looking to create momentum for that. That’s better for the consumers because there will hopefully be more deals.
StartupNation: What about the backlash against some stores being open on Thanksgiving?
Patel: I think you saw it from many retailers last year that they did close last year (on Thanksgiving Day). I think you’ll see probably more of that as well, especially since almost half of the sales came from e-commerce.
Especially this year, there’s going to be more mobile purchasing. On top of that, you have pop-up shops, which I think you’ll see more (of) for some of the e-commerce stores.
StartupNation: Do you think those pop-up shops will be reserved to the major markets like New York, San Francisco, L.A.? Or are we going to see them in smaller cities as well?
Patel: There’s definitely opportunity for people to (pop up) in smaller cities, especially in malls, where there are going to be some vacancies. Last year and this year, major retailers have figured out that if you get the consumer to come in and pick up an item, your chances of them buying something else is pretty high.
Sign Up: Receive the StartupNation newsletter!
StartupNation: What other trends do you expect to see for Cyber Monday and afterwards in the e-commerce space?
Patel: I think for me it’s going to be mobile. I think you’ll see probably the interfaces will be changing a little bit so they’re faster and easier to click. You’ll see more leading up to Cyber Monday.
When you talk about Walmart and Amazon, there’s the play on free shipping. Especially the two of them have bought in-house delivery systems and other retailers are going to see that and they’re going to try to figure out a way to do that as well. I think this year, you’ll see a little bit more push when it comes to the shipping wars.
StartupNation: What product categories do you anticipate being hot this season?
Patel: I think every year, it’s tech and cellphones. Usually that category tends to lead it. I think also clothing and footwear. With a lot more retailers focused in on e-commerce this year, there’s going to be a lot more competition on providing good value.
